Why Roman Josi Should Be Your Norris Winner
A statistical, analytical, and eye test driven analysis as to why the Swiss Nashville defenseman should be your Norris winner.
Monday September 21st, 2020: the day where it all comes to a close. All of the talk and speculation about who should win the biggest awards of the year will end in a fiery pit of complaints, bad choices, and overall terrible evaluation by the voters. The NHL and its voters/analysts find a way to screw up who gets certain awards every year. This is not anything that the hockey community isn’t aware of already. Today, I am going to be taking a deep dive into the 2019-2020 Norris trophy, and specifically Roman Josi’s case for it. Since the voters don’t use statistics (any other than points), analytics, or eye test, I figured it was my duty to do it for them.
The James Norris Memorial Trophy by definition is awarded to the best all-around defenseman in the NHL for the season. However, that definition has been skewed by the PHWA. It is now handed out to the defenseman that can find a way to score the most points, or big name guys that can score points on winning teams. How do we know this? For starters, this year’s Norris finalists are the top three point scoring defenseman.
Last season’s Norris finalists were the top two scoring defenseman and Victor Hedman, aka a big name that can put up high point totals on a winning team. Finally, the 2017-18 finalists were all top 10 in scoring among defenseman, and on playoff teams. The winner in 2017-18 was the leading point scorer among the nominated defenseman in Victor Hedman. The runners up being Drew Doughty (2nd in points among the finalists) and P.K Subban (3rd in points among the finalists). The correlation between point totals and being on a winning team with the voting on the Norris is clearly evident. A lot of the hockey community has scrutinized the PHWA for their clear lack of actual analysis on players, and instead blindly looking at point totals. This would be the year for that reputation to be put to rest. How, might you ask? Roman Josi is how.
Roman Josi’s case for the Norris is about as strong as any defenseman could dream. Let’s start by taking a look at the basic statistics and how he ranks among defenseman.
The Basic Numbers (aka points)
This is the one (and realistically most impactful) area where he falls behind to Washington Capitals blueliner John Carlson. As noted in the previous section, Josi is a top three point scorer among defenseman. He is not the best though. Carlson is the leader in the points category among dmen with 75 in 69 games played. Josi is 10 points behind him in the same amount of games. Some (including myself) would argue that while Carlson’s point totals are impressive, they cannot tell the full story. Obviously point totals as a general statistic cannot tell the full story, but in this case it tells even less. The Capitals are obviously a high powered offensive team, with elite offensive forwards. Carlson will inevitably benefit off of playing with guys like Alex Ovechkin, T.J Oshie, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom, and Jakub Vrana. While a guy like Josi plays with forwards such as Filip Forsberg, Matt Duchene, Mikael Granlund, Viktor Arvidsson, and Ryan Johansen.
I think it is fair to assume that any hockey fan would want to play with the first five players, rather than the latter. Not to say that the last five players aren’t talented, but compared to the likes of Alex Ovechkin and crew, they are hardly comparable. Therefore, we can connect the dots and say that Carlson most likely benefited more from his team and mainly forwards than Josi did. The same thing could be said for a guy like Victor Hedman. While not racking up the same point totals as Josi or Carlson, it is not unreasonable to suggest his point totals directly benefited from playing with the likes of Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point, Alex Killorn, and Anthony Cirelli. Josi clearly has the least help out of the three finalists in terms of teammates on paper.
The Analytics
Obviously that analysis over the main criteria for votes was fairly short. However, I didn’t want to bore everyone by picking apart the inherent flaws of solely using point totals to define a defenseman. Now, we get to the interesting metrics. Since this entire post is about Josi’s case compared to the other finalists let us do just that. The numbers in parentheses represent where the three defenseman stand in the league among defenseman with a minimum of 1000 minutes.
ixG:
Josi- 13.71 (1st)
Carlson- 11.33 (5th)
Hedman- 9.45 (10th)
GAR:
Hedman- 18.1 (4th)
Josi- 17.9 (5th)
Carlson- 7.6 (35th)
xWAR:
Josi- 2.4 (4th)
Hedman- 2 (10th)
Carlson- 1.8 (14th)
GF/60:
Hedman- 0.254 (3rd)
Josi- 0.233 (5th)
Carlson- 0.219 (7th)
xGA/60:
Josi- (-)0.06 (30th)
Hedman- (-)0.038 (38th)
Carlson- 0.134 (94th)
xGF/60:
Hedman- 0.104 (24th)
Josi- 0.091 (25th)
Carlson- 0.082 (31st)
CF/60:
Josi- 6.95 (1st)
Carlson- 2.7 (16th)
Hedman- 1.28 (41st)
CA/60:
Hedman- (-)0.87 (49th)
Josi- 0.4 (65th)
Carlson- 0.82 (72nd)
The analytics clearly do not favor Carlson. Rather they favor both Hedman and Josi. When evaluating defenseman using analytics I mainly look at xWAR, where Josi leads. To some this may be a convincing enough argument to not give Carlson as much consideration for the award considering he continuously ranks lower than both Hedman and Josi, but others might need more.
Micro-Stats/Eye Test
Now we move onto the micro stats, and inevitably the eye test. Thanks to a friend in HBAnalytics we have the ability to look at a combination of both micro stats and the regular RAPM charts as shown above in the last section.
These microstat adjusted charts paint a much more detailed picture than what was already shown by regular RAPM charts. They clearly show that Josi is extremely dominant on the offensive side of the ice in terms of generating quality chances and driving play. Along with being above average on the defensive side of things. The last micro stats that seal the deal for me in this debate are Josi’s transition stats. Josi is by far the most dominant defenseman in the NHL when it comes to entering the zone after a transition rush. He has an absolutely insane carry-in% of 76%, and to go along with that he has an astonishing 20.41 entries/60. He is also atop the mountain of zone possession exits among defenseman which is no surprise.
Josi’s transition statistics are what bring together his game on paper. There is no defenseman that even touches him in this area of the game. Not only do these numbers look good on the stat sheet, but they look even better when you watch what Josi does in transition with the puck. His fantastic stick-handling along with Scott Niedermayer-esque skating combines for some wonderful creation off the rush that he uses to his advantage, and that the Predators use to their advantage. The main goal I can think of that demonstrates how lethal his transition game is, is against the Ottawa Senators. It condenses Josi’s play style into one play almost perfectly. Aggressive back check after a pinch, stick lift to obtain the puck, carry it out of the defensive zone, enter the offensive zone, make a move through multiple defenders, and score a goal. Even when he does not score a goal, he clearly creates offensive chances no matter what. Evidenced by the fantastic xGF/60 numbers in both the RAPM charts and micro stat adjusted RAPM charts.
Conclusion
The arguments about who should win the Norris this year are futile. Not because of the data I’ve presented in this article. Rather the lack of data and true analysis that the voters use to determine who deserves the award. However, if this article can generate more interest in using analytical data along with micro stats, and even box score stats to determine who wins awards then I will have done my job. At the end of the day there is only one finalist this year that is truly deserving of the trophy. That is Roman Josi. Arguably the most dynamic defenseman in the league has proven time and time again this season that he deserves to win. However, the point totals do not lean in his favor leading to the NHL media portraying him in an inferior light. Even if Carlson is more likely to win in reality, that should not hinder anyone from making the correct choice for their own ballot. Roman Josi should be number one for anyone who chooses to look beyond the misleading points statistic, and do more in-depth research.